INEGI: January Industrial Production

The Inegi industrial production index fell 2.24% in January on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis from December as manufacturing took a breather from the huge end-of-year surge that has rallied factories in recent months. At a trend rate, the IP index was still growing at a 5.32% rate, down from 8.98% in December 09 and 11.39% in November 09.

The January drawback raises question over whether the Q409 explosion in manufacturing was a temporary burst fueled by pent-up demand and lean inventories, or the beginning of a sustainable V-shaped recover. In our view, while it is not likely that the double-digit growth seen at the end of last year will be the norm, a firm recovery from the devastating 2009 contraction should continue. US automotive sales figures for February indeed augur a continuation of strength.


Inegi Industrial Production Index, Seasonally Adjusted
(2003=100)
Indices Annualized Var.
IP Trend IP Trend
Jan 09 104.53 107.01 -34.92% -16.48%
Feb 105.72 105.70 14.43% -13.73%
Mar 104.54 104.86 -12.52% -9.11%
Apr 105.48 104.51 11.31% -3.89%
May 104.06 104.55 -15.00% 0.48%
Jun 103.48 104.85 -6.56% 3.47%
Jul 106.64 105.30 43.62% 5.20%
Aug 105.80 105.87 -9.06% 6.75%
Sep 106.17 106.67 4.19% 9.48%
Oct 107.76 107.62 19.62% 11.14%
Nov 108.67 108.59 10.52% 11.39%
Dec 109.77 109.37 12.89% 8.98%
Jan 10 109.56 109.84 -2.24% 5.32%

Inegi IP Manufacturing Sub-Index, Seasonally Adjusted
(2003=100)
Indices Annualized Var.
Man. Trend Man. Trend
Jan 09 100.68 101.30 -55.35% -63.22%
Feb 101.40 100.54 8.90% -8.70%
Mar 99.60 100.08 -19.27% -5.33%
Apr 102.22 99.96 36.48% -1.41%
May 99.87 100.27 -24.33% 3.85%
Jun 99.00 100.97 -9.94% 8.63%
Jul 103.43 102.00 69.06% 12.98%
Aug 103.10 103.32 -3.76% 16.70%
Sep 104.48 105.01 17.30% 21.53%
Oct 107.01 106.88 33.18% 23.52%
Nov 109.10 108.59 26.18% 20.95%
Dec 111.97 109.83 36.50% 14.67%
Jan 10 110.45 110.57 -15.06% 8.31%

Inegi IP Construction Sub-Index, Seasonally Adjusted
(2003=100)
Indices Annualized Var.
Con. Trend Con. Trend
Jan 09 116.73 117.42 -12.94% -10.33%
Feb 116.98 116.59 2.57% -8.20%
Mar 115.85 116.01 -10.97% -5.80%
Apr 115.85 115.57 0.03% -4.44%
May 114.10 115.13 -16.75% -4.49%
Jun 116.43 114.61 27.47% -5.28%
Jul 116.52 114.01 0.93% -6.02%
Aug 113.37 113.42 -28.02% -6.10%
Sep 112.16 112.86 -12.10% -5.78%
Oct 112.35 112.35 2.12% -5.24%
Nov 112.62 111.97 2.84% -4.06%
Dec 111.45 111.73 -11.72% -2.46%
Jan 10 111.71 111.64 2.81% -1.00%

Inegi IP Power, Gas, Water Sub-Index, Seasonally Adjusted
(2003=100)
Indices Annualized Var.
PGW Trend PGW Trend
Jan 09 120.44 120.30 12.82% 7.98%
Feb 120.58 120.95 1.45% 6.73%
Mar 122.67 121.40 22.88% 4.58%
Apr 121.79 121.69 -8.24% 2.84%
May 119.73 121.93 -18.51% 2.44%
Jun 121.58 122.20 20.21% 2.64%
Jul 121.79 122.48 2.04% 2.77%
Aug 123.31 122.75 16.00% 2.78%
Sep 123.66 122.98 3.46% 2.20%
Oct 123.42 123.10 -2.21% 1.15%
Nov 122.48 123.11 -8.80% 0.10%
Dec 122.65 123.06 1.69% -0.41%
Jan 10 123.38 123.06 7.41% 0.01%

Inegi IP Mining Sub-Index, Seasonally Adjusted
(2003=100)
Indices Annualized Var.
Min. Trend Min. Trend
Jan 09 100.92 100.73 5.35% 0.57%
Feb 100.39 100.76 -6.15% 0.33%
Mar 100.53 100.80 1.67% 0.53%
Apr 101.34 100.93 10.12% 1.54%
May 101.25 101.19 -1.13% 3.12%
Jun 98.34 101.53 -29.50% 4.16%
Jul 101.32 101.89 43.04% 4.29%
Aug 102.58 102.18 16.08% 3.43%
Sep 102.83 102.37 2.92% 2.30%
Oct 102.61 102.46 -2.50% 1.04%
Nov 102.20 102.43 -4.71% -0.28%
Dec 102.00 102.35 -2.36% -1.03%
Jan 10 102.15 102.26 1.74% -1.00%